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Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Stock Rating & Analysis
As of October 6, 2026, MELANY rates Marathon Petroleum Corporation 69 out of 100 (Highest Conviction). Its highest factor score is earnings track record at 88, and its lowest is macro fit at 50.
MELANY ratingRated 2026-10-06MPC · composite score
About Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Marathon Petroleum is an integrated downstream and midstream energy company that operates 13 refineries in the US Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions, with aggregate crude oil refining capacity of 3.0 million barrels per day. It is among the largest US producers of renewable diesel; its Dickinson, North Dakota facility can produce 184 million gallons per year, and its Martinez, California joint venture (a 50/50 partnership with Neste) reached full capacity of 730 million gallons per year in late 2024.
Rating as of 2026-10-06 · this is a dated snapshot; the live rating is in the app (Pro, free for 30 days). The price above updates in real time.
Why MPC scores 69/100
MPC's 8 factor scores run from 50 to 88, and 4 of them sit above its composite of 69. Here is how MPC breaks down.
Whether the price looks cheap or expensive against earnings, growth, and peers.
- Forward P/E 8.5x, earnings growth accelerating
- PEG ratio 1.00 (< 1 = undervalued)
- FCF yield 7.6%
Margins, returns on capital, and balance-sheet strength.
- ROE 42%
Direction and relative strength of the recent share-price trend.
- Price +16.7% above 50-day MA
- 50-day MA above 200-day (golden cross zone)
History of beating or missing estimates, and where estimates are heading.
- Beat EPS estimates 3 of last 4 quarters
- Avg EPS beat +45%
- Earnings in 28 days (strong beat history)
What Wall Street price targets and revisions are signalling.
Near-term events that could move the stock.
- Earnings in 28 days
Upside weighed against volatility and drawdown risk.
How the current rate and market regime suits this kind of company.
How MPC compares
As of October 7, 2026, Marathon Petroleum Corporation ranks 7th of 16 in Energy Stocks, where the average score is 66.
Key risks for MPC
- Trading near 52-week high, limited upside without new positive catalyst
Sector and theme context
Marathon Petroleum Corporation sits in the Energy / commodity cycle theme, which MELANY currently rates 20/100 for strength. Theme strength feeds MPC's momentum and catalyst factors above.
MPC trade plan (Pro)
MELANY has a full position plan for Marathon Petroleum Corporation: a smart entry zone, an alert level, position sizing, and quarterly review triggers. It is part of Market Eyes Pro, and the first 30 days are free.
How MELANY rates MPC
MELANY is a rules-based engine that scores every stock from 0 to 100 across eight weighted factors, then re-scores as new price, earnings, and fundamental data arrive. Marathon Petroleum Corporation's 69/100 reflects mature factor weighting for its profile. Position framework managed by score-based check-ins, not a fixed holding period.
Ratings are algorithmic and change with the data. They are research and education, not personalized investment advice.
Frequently asked questions about MPC
Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) a buy?
As of 2026-10-06, MELANY rated Marathon Petroleum Corporation Highest Conviction with a composite score of 69/100. That is a dated snapshot, not the live rating, and it is an algorithmic reading built from eight factors rather than personalized investment advice. Review the factor breakdown above and the disclaimer below before making any decision.
What is Marathon Petroleum Corporation's MELANY score?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) has a MELANY composite score of 69/100, combining valuation, business quality, price momentum, earnings track record, analyst sentiment, catalyst setup, risk-adjusted profile, macro fit.
How is the MPC stock rating calculated?
MELANY scores MPC from 0 to 100 across eight weighted factors using live market and fundamental data, then refreshes the rating automatically as new data arrives.
Should I buy Marathon Petroleum Corporation stock?
That decision is yours; Market Eyes Live does not give buy or sell advice. What the data says: MELANY rates Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Highest Conviction with a composite of 69/100 as of 2026-10-06. The factor breakdown above shows what is driving that, which is a better basis for a decision than any one-word verdict.
What is the MPC stock price forecast?
MELANY does not publish price targets or forecasts for MPC. Predicting a future price is exactly the kind of false precision the confidence framework avoids. Instead it scores today's setup, 69/100 across eight factors for Marathon Petroleum Corporation, and re-scores automatically as new price, earnings, and fundamental data arrive.
Is MPC stock overvalued or undervalued?
MELANY's valuation factor currently reads 57/100 for Marathon Petroleum Corporation, where a higher score means the price looks more attractive on that measure. Scores in the 70s and above read as attractively priced, the mid range as roughly fair, and low scores as stretched. The factor breakdown above shows what drives MPC's read.
What price should I buy MPC at?
Rather than chasing the current price, MELANY computes a smart entry zone for MPC: the price area where risk and reward actually favor a new position, plus an alert level and position sizing. The exact levels are part of Market Eyes Pro, which starts with a 30-day free trial.
What are the risks of buying MPC stock?
The top risks MELANY currently flags for Marathon Petroleum Corporation: Trading near 52-week high, limited upside without new positive catalyst. The rating on this page already weighs these against the bullish factors; see the risk-adjusted profile score in the breakdown above.
Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation a good long-term investment?
For long-term durability the two factors that matter most are business quality, which MELANY scores 53/100 for Marathon Petroleum Corporation, and earnings track record, at 88/100. The 69/100 composite blends those with six shorter-horizon factors. Durable quality at a fair price is the long-term case to test; this is research, not personalized investment advice.
Will MPC stock go up?
Nobody can promise a stock's direction, and Market Eyes Live does not predict prices. The measurable part: MELANY's price momentum factor reads 84/100 for MPC right now, and the catalyst setup factor tracks whether near-term events could move it. Both re-score automatically as the data changes.
How current is this MPC rating?
The rating on this page is a snapshot of MELANY's read as of 2026-10-06. The price shown updates live, but the score is not recomputed on this page. MELANY re-scores MPC continuously as new price, earnings, and fundamental data arrive, and the current rating is in the app (Pro, free for 30 days).
How this rating works
Market Eyes Live
Every rating graded in public, MPC included
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