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Daily Rate Lock Advisory

The 10-Year, MBS, and the events that move rates, with a data-driven read on the lock-or-float environment. Advisory for August 24, 2026, market data as of the August 21, 2026 session.

Today's rate environment
Rates are holding steady
Wait through the next event

PCE Inflation (Personal Income & Outlays) in 47h is a coin-flip event. If your close is past it, wait; if within 7 days, lock now.

Market Eyes read as of 2026-08-21. General market commentary from live data, not individualized advice.

What changed since the last session

10-Year Treasury since the last session
+4 bps
4.70% to 4.74%. Higher yields push mortgage rates up, not down.
MBS since the last session
-0.18
93.30 to 93.12. Lower MBS prices are what force a reprice worse.

Session-over-session move in the two series that set a mortgage rate, as of the August 21, 2026 session.

Lock Radar (members only)

Market Eyes tracks intraday MBS reprices and sends you a lock alert the moment the window opens, tuned to your scenario. The personalized signal, the reprice size, and the alerts unlock free when you create an account.

Personalized lock or float signalLocked
Intraday reprice size and directionLocked
Lock-window push alertsLocked
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10-Year Treasury
4.74%
+1 bps over 5 days, flat
Support4.60%
Resistance4.75%
Mortgage-Backed Securities (UMBS proxy)
93.12
flat
25-day avg93.21
50-day avg93.71
Rate-moving events ahead
2026-08-26PCE Inflation (Personal Income & Outlays)high
2026-08-26GDPhigh
2026-08-27Initial Jobless Claimsmedium
2026-09-03Initial Jobless Claimsmedium
2026-09-04Employment Situation (Jobs Report)high
2026-09-10Producer Price Index (PPI)medium

How to use this

Mortgage rates are set off mortgage-backed securities, which move with the 10-Year Treasury and the economic calendar. This page pulls all three together so you can see the direction at a glance. Loan officers and advisors use it for a daily read; borrowers use it to understand the lock-or-float question. For a personalized lock signal and reprice alerts, open Lock Radar above.

Frequently asked questions

Should I lock my mortgage rate today?

As of 2026-08-21, Market Eyes reads the rate environment as holding steady: PCE Inflation (Personal Income & Outlays) in 47h is a coin-flip event. If your close is past it, wait; if within 7 days, lock now. This is general, data-driven market commentary, not individualized advice. Your lock decision depends on your loan, your timeline, and your lender, so confirm with your loan officer.

What decides whether rates go up or down?

Mortgage rates track mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which move with the 10-Year Treasury yield and expectations for inflation and Fed policy. When MBS prices rise, rates tend to fall, and vice versa.

How often does this update?

The 10-Year and MBS figures refresh through the trading day; this read reflects the data as of 2026-08-21.

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