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The UMBS proxy, its momentum versus the moving averages, and what it means for rates. Updated 2026-07-09.
Lenders sell most mortgages into pools of mortgage-backed securities, and the price investors pay for those pools (the UMBS, at the current coupon) is what sets the rate a lender can offer. It is an inverse relationship: when MBS prices rise, mortgage rates fall; when MBS prices sell off, rates rise. Watching MBS intraday is how loan officers anticipate a reprice before the rate sheet changes.
Rates trending up (10-Y +6bps over 5 days). Lock to stop the bleeding.
Market Eyes tracks intraday MBS reprices and sends you a lock alert the moment the window opens, tuned to your scenario. The personalized signal, the reprice size, and the alerts unlock free when you create an account.
As of 2026-07-09, the UMBS proxy is at 93.82 with bearish momentum, below its 50-day average of 94.30.
UMBS (Uniform Mortgage-Backed Security) is the standardized security most conventional loans are pooled into. The current coupon is the coupon trading nearest to par, and it is the price loan officers watch to gauge today's rate.
Lenders are paid by selling loans into MBS. When investors pay less for MBS (prices fall), lenders must raise the rate to keep the loan sellable, so your rate goes up.
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