Market Eyes LiveUlta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Stock Rating & Analysis
MELANY's data-driven read on Ulta Beauty, Inc. · Retail-Retail Stores, Nec.
Ulta Beauty is the largest specialized beauty retailer in the US, with more than 1,500 freestanding stores. It sells cosmetics (38% of 2025 sales), fragrances (13%), skin care (24%), and hair care (19%), and offers salon services such as hair, makeup, skin, and brow, which make up 4% of revenue and drive customer traffic. Outside the US, it operates premium beauty retailer Space NK (86 stores at year-end 2025 in the UK and Ireland), franchised stores in Mexico, and a Middle East joint venture.
Why ULTA scores 65/100
MELANY scores Ulta Beauty, Inc. 65/100 by weighing eight factors. Here is how ULTA breaks down.
Whether the price looks cheap or expensive against earnings, growth, and peers.
- P/E 19.9x vs sector 21.0x median
Margins, returns on capital, and balance-sheet strength.
- Gross margin 41%
- ROE 47%
Direction and relative strength of the recent share-price trend.
- Price +7.8% above 50-day MA
History of beating or missing estimates, and where estimates are heading.
- Beat EPS estimates 3 of last 4 quarters
- Avg EPS beat +7%
- Earnings in 2 days (strong beat history)
What Wall Street price targets and revisions are signalling.
Near-term events that could move the stock.
- Earnings in 2 days
Upside weighed against volatility and drawdown risk.
How the current rate and market regime suits this kind of company.
Key risks for ULTA
- Earnings report in 2 days, binary outcome can move 10%+ either way
Sector and theme context
Ulta Beauty, Inc. sits in the Consumer discretionary cycle theme, which MELANY currently rates 24/100 for strength. Theme strength feeds ULTA's momentum and catalyst factors above.
Tracking ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc. rates Hold right now, so MELANY is not flagging a fresh entry. Create a free account to add ULTA to your watchlist and get alerted the moment the rating changes.
How MELANY rates ULTA
MELANY is a rules-based engine that scores every stock from 0 to 100 across eight weighted factors, then re-scores as new price, earnings, and fundamental data arrive. Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s 65/100 reflects mature factor weighting for its profile.
Ratings are algorithmic and change with the data. They are research and education, not personalized investment advice.
Frequently asked questions about ULTA
Is Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) a buy?
As of 2026-08-25, MELANY rated Ulta Beauty, Inc. Hold with a composite score of 65/100. That is a dated snapshot, not the live rating, and it is an algorithmic reading built from eight factors rather than personalized investment advice. Review the factor breakdown above and the disclaimer below before making any decision.
What is Ulta Beauty, Inc.'s MELANY score?
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) has a MELANY composite score of 65/100, combining valuation, business quality, price momentum, earnings track record, analyst sentiment, catalyst setup, risk-adjusted profile, and macro fit.
How is the ULTA stock rating calculated?
MELANY scores ULTA from 0 to 100 across eight weighted factors using live market and fundamental data, then refreshes the rating automatically as new data arrives.
Should I buy Ulta Beauty, Inc. stock?
That decision is yours; Market Eyes Live does not give buy or sell advice. What the data says: MELANY rates Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) Hold with a composite of 65/100 as of 2026-08-25. The factor breakdown above shows what is driving that, which is a better basis for a decision than any one-word verdict.
What is the ULTA stock price forecast?
MELANY does not publish price targets or forecasts for ULTA. Predicting a future price is exactly the kind of false precision the confidence framework avoids. Instead it scores today's setup, 65/100 across eight factors for Ulta Beauty, Inc., and re-scores automatically as new price, earnings, and fundamental data arrive.
Is ULTA stock overvalued or undervalued?
MELANY's valuation factor currently reads 46/100 for Ulta Beauty, Inc., where a higher score means the price looks more attractive against earnings, growth, and peers. Scores in the 70s and above read as attractively priced, the mid range as roughly fair, and low scores as stretched. The factor breakdown above shows what drives ULTA's read.
What price should I buy ULTA at?
MELANY is not flagging a fresh entry for ULTA at its current Hold rating, so there is no entry zone to publish right now. Watchlisting ULTA in the free app gets you alerted the moment that changes.
What are the risks of buying ULTA stock?
The top risks MELANY currently flags for Ulta Beauty, Inc.: Earnings report in 2 days, binary outcome can move 10%+ either way. The rating on this page already weighs these against the bullish factors; see the risk-adjusted profile score in the breakdown above.
Is Ulta Beauty, Inc. a good long-term investment?
For long-term durability the two factors that matter most are business quality, which MELANY scores 68/100 for Ulta Beauty, Inc., and earnings track record, at 77/100. The 65/100 composite blends those with six shorter-horizon factors. Durable quality at a fair price is the long-term case to test; this is research, not personalized investment advice.
Will ULTA stock go up?
Nobody can promise a stock's direction, and Market Eyes Live does not predict prices. The measurable part: MELANY's price momentum factor reads 48/100 for ULTA right now, and the catalyst setup factor tracks whether near-term events could move it. Both re-score automatically as the data changes.
How current is this ULTA rating?
The rating on this page is a snapshot of MELANY's read as of 2026-08-25. The price shown updates live, but the score is not recomputed on this page. MELANY re-scores ULTA continuously as new price, earnings, and fundamental data arrive, and that current rating is free in the app.
ULTA's live rating and alerts are free either way. The app is our flagship.