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Alcoa Corporation (AA) Stock Rating & Analysis
As of October 13, 2026, MELANY rates Alcoa Corporation 65 out of 100 (Hold). Its highest factor score is catalyst setup at 100, and its lowest is price momentum at 17.
MELANY ratingRated 2026-10-13AA · composite score
Why AA scores 65/100
AA's 8 factor scores run from 17 to 100, and 4 of them sit above its composite of 65. Here is how AA breaks down.
Whether the price looks cheap or expensive against earnings, growth, and peers.
- P/E 8.6x vs sector 14.0x median
- FCF yield 8.8%
Margins, returns on capital, and balance-sheet strength.
Direction and relative strength of the recent share-price trend.
History of beating or missing estimates, and where estimates are heading.
- Beat EPS estimates 3 of last 4 quarters
- Avg EPS beat +29%
- Earnings in 2 days (strong beat history)
What Wall Street price targets and revisions are signalling.
- Analyst targets 45% upside
Near-term events that could move the stock.
- Earnings in 2 days
Upside weighed against volatility and drawdown risk.
How the current rate and market regime suits this kind of company.
Key risks for AA
- Earnings report in 2 days, binary outcome can move 10%+ either way
- Weak price momentum, trend not yet confirmed, may need more time to set up
Sector and theme context
Alcoa Corporation sits in the Materials / commodity cycle theme, which MELANY currently rates 6/100 for strength. Theme strength feeds AA's momentum and catalyst factors above.
Tracking AA
Alcoa Corporation rates Hold right now, so MELANY is not flagging a fresh entry. Add AA to a watchlist in the app to follow its rating; an alert the moment it changes is part of Pro, free for 30 days.
How MELANY rates AA
MELANY is a rules-based engine that scores every stock from 0 to 100 across eight weighted factors, then re-scores as new price, earnings, and fundamental data arrive. Alcoa Corporation's 65/100 reflects mature factor weighting for its profile.
Ratings are algorithmic and change with the data. They are research and education, not personalized investment advice.
Frequently asked questions about AA
Is Alcoa Corporation (AA) a buy?
As of 2026-10-13, MELANY rated Alcoa Corporation Hold with a composite score of 65/100. That is a dated snapshot, not the live rating, and it is an algorithmic reading built from eight factors rather than personalized investment advice. Review the factor breakdown above and the disclaimer below before making any decision.
What is Alcoa Corporation's MELANY score?
Alcoa Corporation (AA) has a MELANY composite score of 65/100, combining valuation, business quality, price momentum, earnings track record, analyst sentiment, catalyst setup, risk-adjusted profile, macro fit.
How is the AA stock rating calculated?
MELANY scores AA from 0 to 100 across eight weighted factors using live market and fundamental data, then refreshes the rating automatically as new data arrives.
Should I buy Alcoa Corporation stock?
That decision is yours; Market Eyes Live does not give buy or sell advice. What the data says: MELANY rates Alcoa Corporation (AA) Hold with a composite of 65/100 as of 2026-10-13. The factor breakdown above shows what is driving that, which is a better basis for a decision than any one-word verdict.
What is the AA stock price forecast?
MELANY does not publish price targets or forecasts for AA. Predicting a future price is exactly the kind of false precision the confidence framework avoids. Instead it scores today's setup, 65/100 across eight factors for Alcoa Corporation, and re-scores automatically as new price, earnings, and fundamental data arrive.
Is AA stock overvalued or undervalued?
MELANY's valuation factor currently reads 73/100 for Alcoa Corporation, where a higher score means the price looks more attractive on that measure. Scores in the 70s and above read as attractively priced, the mid range as roughly fair, and low scores as stretched. The factor breakdown above shows what drives AA's read.
What price should I buy AA at?
MELANY is not flagging a fresh entry for AA at its current Hold rating, so there is no entry zone to publish right now. Add AA to a watchlist in the app to follow it; an alert the moment the rating changes is part of Pro, free for 30 days.
What are the risks of buying AA stock?
The top risks MELANY currently flags for Alcoa Corporation: Earnings report in 2 days, binary outcome can move 10%+ either way; Weak price momentum, trend not yet confirmed, may need more time to set up. The rating on this page already weighs these against the bullish factors; see the risk-adjusted profile score in the breakdown above.
Is Alcoa Corporation a good long-term investment?
For long-term durability the two factors that matter most are business quality, which MELANY scores 54/100 for Alcoa Corporation, and earnings track record, at 88/100. The 65/100 composite blends those with six shorter-horizon factors. Durable quality at a fair price is the long-term case to test; this is research, not personalized investment advice.
Will AA stock go up?
Nobody can promise a stock's direction, and Market Eyes Live does not predict prices. The measurable part: MELANY's price momentum factor reads 17/100 for AA right now, and the catalyst setup factor tracks whether near-term events could move it. Both re-score automatically as the data changes.
How current is this AA rating?
The rating on this page is a snapshot of MELANY's read as of 2026-10-13. The price shown updates live, but the score is not recomputed on this page. MELANY re-scores AA continuously as new price, earnings, and fundamental data arrive, and the current rating is in the app (Pro, free for 30 days).
How this rating works
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