Nvidia Trades at 11.2 Times Next Year's Expected Earnings, Intel at 33.2 Times

1Two chip makers, two very different multiples

Nvidia (NVDA) closed at $178.67 on Monday, November 9, 2026. Analysts expect it to earn $15.92 a share in its fiscal year ending January 2028, so the stock trades at 11.2 times that expected profit. Intel (INTC) closed at $59.37, with $1.79 a share expected for 2027, which puts it at 33.2 times.

That figure is the forward price to earnings ratio, or forward P/E: the share price divided by the profit per share analysts expect in a coming year. A higher number means a buyer pays more today for each dollar of profit the company is expected to make. By that measure, Intel's multiple is about 3.0 times Nvidia's.

The gap depends on which year you use. On estimates for the current year, Nvidia trades at 19.2 times and Intel at 39.9 times, a ratio of 2.1. The estimates here are averages of analysts' forecasts of adjusted profit, a company's own measure of earnings that leaves out some one time and noncash costs. Nvidia's fiscal year ends in late January, so its next fiscal year overlaps calendar 2027 by 11 months.

This table adds Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), another large chip maker, as a third point of reference. Market value is the share price times the number of shares, the price of the whole company.

2Why Intel's multiple is high

Intel's expected profit is small next to its share price. Analysts expect adjusted earnings of $0.25 a share for the quarter ending in December and $0.27 for the March quarter that follows. Dividing a $59.37 share price by profit figures that small gives a large multiple.

Those estimates fell after Intel's results. On October 29, 2026, after the close, Intel reported third quarter revenue of $16.5 billion, up 21% from a year earlier, and adjusted earnings of $0.52 a share. In the same release it said it expects fourth quarter revenue of $15.0 billion to $16.0 billion and adjusted earnings of about $0.25 a share. The stock fell 28.6% the next day, from $92.07 to $65.76.

The average estimate for Intel's December quarter is now $0.25 a share, down from $0.43 a month ago, and 9 analysts lowered it in the past 30 days while none raised it. The average estimate for 2027 fell 14.0% over the same month, to $1.79 from $2.08. Even after the decline, Intel's stock is up 60.9% from its 2025 closing price of $36.90. It sits 57.9% below its highest close of the year, $140.94 on June 22, 2026.

Intel has also lost money over the past year on the standard accounting measure, net income, the profit left after every cost. It lost $11.0 billion in the June quarter and $3.7 billion in the March quarter of this year, then earned $3.3 billion in the September quarter. Across its last four reported quarters it lost $12.0 billion in total, so a P/E based on past profit does not apply to it right now.

3What sits behind Nvidia's lower multiple

Nvidia's multiple is lower because its expected profit is large next to its price. Analysts expect $9.31 a share for the current fiscal year, which ends in January, and $15.92 for the year after, an increase of 70.9%. The average estimate for that later year is 24.0% higher than it was 90 days ago, and 7 analysts raised it in the past 30 days while none lowered it.

Its latest reported results show the scale. In the quarter ended July 26, 2026, Nvidia's revenue was $96.2 billion, up 105.9% from $46.7 billion a year earlier. Net income was $59.7 billion, a net margin of 62.0%, meaning 62 cents of every dollar of sales was left as profit.

On past profit, Nvidia's market value is 22.8 times the $192.9 billion it earned over its last four reported quarters. Its forward multiple is lower than that because analysts expect its profit to keep growing. Nvidia reports results for the quarter ending in October on November 17, after the close, where analysts expect $2.47 a share.

4The board investigation and Monday's move

On Sunday, November 8, 2026, Nvidia's board said it is opening an independent investigation after reports that Chief Executive Jensen Huang has been the target of a foreign intelligence effort. A committee of independent directors, assisted by outside counsel, will oversee it. The board said it has no reason to believe national security or Nvidia's secrets were compromised and that it has confidence in Huang, and the company told CNBC he is committed to leading Nvidia as CEO without interruption.

Nvidia fell 4.3% on Monday, the first trading day after the statement, to $178.67 from $186.64. Chip stocks as a group rose: the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), an exchange traded fund that holds a basket of chip stocks and trades like a single share, gained 7.5%. Advanced Micro Devices gained 13.3% and Intel rose 5.5%.

Monday's close left Nvidia 25.3% below its record close of $239.24 on October 6, 2026, and 4.2% below where it ended 2025. Its largest one day decline in that stretch came on November 5, when it fell 9.3% to $181.60.

5What a forward P/E shows and what it leaves out

• It rests on estimates: the profit figure is a forecast. If a company earns less than expected, the multiple it really traded at was higher than it looked.
• It depends on the source: estimate providers do not all measure adjusted profit the same way, so the same stock can show different forward multiples from one source to another.
• It covers a short window: a company whose profit is expected to recover or grow over several years can carry a high multiple on next year's numbers.
• It leaves out risks that are hard to price: debt, spending on factories, and events such as a board investigation do not appear in a P/E.

6Bull and bear cases: Intel and its competitors

Intel competes with AMD in processors for PCs and servers, with Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom in chips for AI data centers, with Taiwan Semiconductor in making chips for other companies, and with Qualcomm in laptop processors. Below are the main arguments on each side for Intel and those five companies, drawn from their latest results, analyst estimates and prices as of Monday's close. Neither side is a forecast.

• Intel, the bull case: revenue grew 21% in the September quarter to $16.5 billion, and it returned to a quarterly profit of $3.3 billion. It has beaten the average analyst estimate in each of its last 4 quarters, analysts expect adjusted profit per share to rise 20.4% from 2026 to 2027, and the stock is up 60.9% this year. Its earnings factor in the Market Eyes rating reads 100.
• Intel, the bear case: its outlook for the December quarter came in at about $0.25 a share, and 9 analysts cut that quarter's estimate in the past 30 days while none raised it. The 2027 estimate is down 14.0% in a month. It lost $12.0 billion over its last four reported quarters, its gross margin over the past year, the share of sales left after the direct cost of making its chips, was 39.9%, the lowest of the six, and at 33.2 times next year's expected profit it has the highest forward multiple of the six.

• Nvidia, the bull case: analysts expect its profit per share to rise 70.9% next fiscal year, and 7 raised that estimate in the past 30 days while none lowered it. Revenue more than doubled in its latest reported quarter, up 105.9%, and it kept 63.7% of its sales as profit over the past year. At 11.2 times next year's expected profit, it has the lowest forward multiple of the six.
• Nvidia, the bear case: the board investigation tied to its chief executive is open with no end date, and three House committee chairs have asked him to a briefing on November 18. The stock is 25.3% below its October 6 record. A low multiple holds only if the expected profit arrives, and the November 17 results are the next test of that.

• AMD, the bull case: revenue grew 44.7% in its latest quarter, and analysts expect profit per share to more than double in 2027, up 118.8%. The 2027 estimate rose 12.1% in the past 30 days, with 10 analysts raising it and 1 lowering it, and the stock is up 137.5% this year.
• AMD, the bear case: at 28.8 times 2027 expected profit, its multiple is second only to Intel's among the six. It kept 16.8% of its sales as profit over the past year, against 63.7% for Nvidia. The stock is 21.7% below its October 6 high even after rising 13.3% on Monday, and its Market Eyes valuation factor reads 40.

• Taiwan Semiconductor, the bull case: it makes chips for Nvidia, AMD and many other designers. Revenue grew 50.9% in its latest quarter, measured in Taiwan dollars, and it kept 51.1% of its sales as profit over the past year. The 2027 estimate rose 6.7% in the past 30 days, with 10 analysts raising it and 2 lowering it, and the stock trades at 16.6 times that expected profit.
• Taiwan Semiconductor, the bear case: growth is expected to slow, with profit per share up 64.4% this year and 33.6% in 2027. The stock is 20% below its October 5 high. It reports in Taiwan dollars, so currency moves change what its profit is worth to holders of its shares listed in New York, and its 2027 consensus estimate draws on 13 analysts, against 52 for Nvidia's next fiscal year.

• Broadcom, the bull case: revenue grew 85.5% in its latest quarter, and it kept 42.9% of its sales as profit over the past year. Analysts expect profit per share to rise 66.9% in its fiscal year ending October 2027, which puts the stock at 16.4 times that profit, and its quality factor reads 95.
• Broadcom, the bear case: the stock is down 7.7% this year and 33.7% below its June 2 high, and its momentum factor reads 29, the weakest of the six. Its debt of $59.4 billion is more than twice its $24 billion in cash, and analysts' estimate for its next fiscal year is slightly lower than it was three months ago.

• Qualcomm, the bull case: at 17.9 times expected profit for its fiscal year ending September 2027, its valuation factor reads 69, second only to Taiwan Semiconductor's 70 among the six. Analysts expect profit per share to recover by 27.3% in the fiscal year after that.
• Qualcomm, the bear case: revenue fell 8.4% in its latest quarter, and analysts expect profit per share to fall 9% in the fiscal year ending September 2027. That estimate has fallen 5.5% over the past month, with 4 analysts lowering it and 1 raising it, and the stock is 31.7% below its May 29 high.

7The Market Eyes read and the wider chip group

Market Eyes rates stocks on a 0 to 100 score built from eight factors, including valuation, quality and momentum. As of November 9, Nvidia reads Highest Conviction with a score of 72. Its strongest factors are catalyst at 100 and quality at 99, and its weakest is risk adjusted return at 25.

Intel reads Promising with a score of 53. Its strongest factor is earnings at 100, its quality factor reads 40, and its weakest is risk adjusted return at 25. Promising is a label for companies whose fundamentals are less established, and it is not ranked against Highest Conviction.

On the valuation factor, which weighs price against more than one measure of the business, the two read almost level: 60 for Nvidia and 59 for Intel.

Market Eyes rates stocks in four tiers, from weakest to strongest: Unfavorable, Hold, Favorable and Highest Conviction. Among six large chip companies, two read Highest Conviction: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), which makes chips for Nvidia, AMD and many others, at 74, and Nvidia at 72. Broadcom (AVGO) and Qualcomm (QCOM) read Hold. AMD and Intel read Promising, the label for companies whose fundamentals are less established.

Wall Street analysts line up in a similar order. At least 93.5% of the analysts covering Broadcom, Taiwan Semiconductor and Nvidia give them one of the two most positive ratings, against 86.8% for AMD. For Qualcomm the share is 29.7% and for Intel 26.5%, with most of the rest at hold.

Neither ranking is a forecast or a recommendation. A rating describes conditions now, and analysts change their views, as Intel's estimates did after its results.

8What to watch

• Nvidia results: November 17, 2026, after the close, for the quarter ending in October.
• A briefing in Congress: three House committee chairs have asked Huang to attend a closed door briefing on November 18, 2026, the day after the results.
• The board investigation: the board has not said how long it will take.
• Intel results: expected around January 21, 2027, a date the company has not yet confirmed.

9Words in this note

• Earnings per share (EPS): a company's profit divided by its number of shares.
• Forward P/E: the share price divided by the profit per share analysts expect in a coming year.
• Adjusted earnings: a company's own measure of profit that leaves out some one time and noncash costs.
• Net income: the profit left after every cost, including taxes and interest, under standard accounting rules.
• Net margin: net income as a share of revenue.
• Market value: the share price times the number of shares.
• Fiscal year: the 12 months a company uses for its accounts, which does not always match the calendar year.
• Bull case and bear case: the main arguments that a stock will do well and that it will do poorly.
• Gross margin: the share of sales left after the direct cost of making the product.