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The releases most likely to move rates, ranked by impact. Updated 2026-07-09.
Rates move most on data. Inflation prints (CPI, PPI), the jobs report, and Fed decisions can shift mortgage rates more in a single morning than a quiet week does. If a high-impact release lands before your close, that event, not today's level, is often the real lock-or-float decision. The read below folds the calendar into the current environment.
Rates trending up (10-Y +6bps over 5 days). Lock to stop the bleeding.
Inflation reports (CPI and PPI), the monthly jobs report, and Federal Reserve rate decisions are the highest-impact releases for mortgage rates.
If the release lands before your closing and rates are not clearly falling, locking before it removes the risk of an adverse surprise. If rates are trending down and you have time, some choose to float through it. It is a risk decision, not a guarantee.
The next flagged event is CPI Inflation on 2026-07-14, about 100 hours away.
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